China will surpass the U.S. to become the country with the largest economy in the world by 2020, according to Standart Chartered Plc.
We believe that the world is in the 'super cycle' prolonged high growth," said the economists, led by Gerard Lyons in his report. "The scale of change within the next 20 years will be very big”.
The Chinese economy will be larger than United States, in 2030 and will cover 24% of global production, up from 9% today. India will pass Japan to become the country with the third largest economy in the next decade according to the report, said Lyons
The world will experience a "super cycle" in the third, as "a period of high global growth in history, which lasted for a one generation or longer.
characterized by the emergence of a new economy that looks great from the very rapid growth in developing countries driven by increased trade, higher investment, urbanization and technology, wrote Standart Chartered.
They also added that the super cycle of growth marked with a stable currency that can be closely linked to gold or silver, the currency union. Concerns today about the "currency war" highlights the challenges with the current system, according to Standart Chartered.
"The possibility of a formal change in the stability of the currency on a global level cannot be avoided," according to the report
However, for the present context, it is difficult to predict. Greater currency interventions may occur, and we can see more state control of the currency and the currency of reference may be a kind of norm for currency policy
Previously, the super cycle occurred from 1870 to 1913, and at the beginning of World War until the early 1970s, according to Standart Chartered.
11/19/10
A Dead Lock for the settlement of the dispute's Yuan versus US Dollar !!
Seventh meeting in the last two years between Hu Jin Tao and Barack Obama on the G-20 still did not produce any agreement. Currency Exchange is a central issue in the talks at the Summit G-20 in Seoul, South Korea last week
Weakened United States economy since the financial crisis in 2008. Beginning with the supreme mortgage, eventually becoming the financial institution crisis, which ultimately makes a lot of people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate also increased rapidly
This problem is a burden the U.S. Government, Obama was forced to meet a campaign promise to double exports to the united states economy could rise
The decreasing number of jobs and exports is due to declining competitiveness of American against Chinese's products. American consumer goods less competitive even within their own country
The value of the Yuan low against the US Dollar makes Chinese products sell well in world markets.
Chinese-made goods flooding the market around the world. China became the number one exporter in the world, shifting the position of Germany
Until August this year, China's trade surplus against the U.S. It reached U.S. $ 28 billion.
Chinese's government policies that suppress the yuan exchange rate against the dollar are considered a big share of this trade imbalance.
United States economy is a mess because the policies of George W. Bush, who spent two-thirds of foreign exchange for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama should be smart to persuade Hu Jin Tao, for China to soften the currency question
Facing U.S. pressure, Hu, still not promising change in currency policy significantly to Obama.
Hu only gives a signal that China intends to reform the Yuan in accordance with international standards
"This is a process that requires approval of global economic players," said Ma Zhaoxu, spoken for Foreign Ministry.
United States policy of central banks last week issued a new currency with guaranteed debt of U.S. $ 600 billion worth of upsetting the Chinese government. That money is considered illegal because it will make money flow out of control in developing countries like in Asia
International Director of the Central Bank of China, Zhang Tao said, “Washington had damaged the world financial and trading system”.
“As a country that was on the rise, there is the important current world economic recovery, but the policy can make a risk to destroy the system”, said Zhang
This policy makes the dollar fell, making U.S. Products will be sold in the country, and able to compete with other countries, including China.
but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, denied that the policy of Washington was pressing Beijing aims to reform the Yuan currency.
"We will not weaken the currency as a tool to enhance the ability to compete or to grow the economy", he said
As the G-20 closed last week in Seoul, negotiators still could not soften the Chinese and American. to agree about the system currency and international trade.
As a result, G-20 joint communique read by the conference of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, did not mention it substantially in the affairs of the Beijing-Washington.
So how to dispute Yuan versus US Dollar for the next ?
Weakened United States economy since the financial crisis in 2008. Beginning with the supreme mortgage, eventually becoming the financial institution crisis, which ultimately makes a lot of people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate also increased rapidly
This problem is a burden the U.S. Government, Obama was forced to meet a campaign promise to double exports to the united states economy could rise
The decreasing number of jobs and exports is due to declining competitiveness of American against Chinese's products. American consumer goods less competitive even within their own country
The value of the Yuan low against the US Dollar makes Chinese products sell well in world markets.
Chinese-made goods flooding the market around the world. China became the number one exporter in the world, shifting the position of Germany
Until August this year, China's trade surplus against the U.S. It reached U.S. $ 28 billion.
Chinese's government policies that suppress the yuan exchange rate against the dollar are considered a big share of this trade imbalance.
United States economy is a mess because the policies of George W. Bush, who spent two-thirds of foreign exchange for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama should be smart to persuade Hu Jin Tao, for China to soften the currency question
Facing U.S. pressure, Hu, still not promising change in currency policy significantly to Obama.
Hu only gives a signal that China intends to reform the Yuan in accordance with international standards
"This is a process that requires approval of global economic players," said Ma Zhaoxu, spoken for Foreign Ministry.
United States policy of central banks last week issued a new currency with guaranteed debt of U.S. $ 600 billion worth of upsetting the Chinese government. That money is considered illegal because it will make money flow out of control in developing countries like in Asia
International Director of the Central Bank of China, Zhang Tao said, “Washington had damaged the world financial and trading system”.
“As a country that was on the rise, there is the important current world economic recovery, but the policy can make a risk to destroy the system”, said Zhang
This policy makes the dollar fell, making U.S. Products will be sold in the country, and able to compete with other countries, including China.
but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, denied that the policy of Washington was pressing Beijing aims to reform the Yuan currency.
"We will not weaken the currency as a tool to enhance the ability to compete or to grow the economy", he said
As the G-20 closed last week in Seoul, negotiators still could not soften the Chinese and American. to agree about the system currency and international trade.
As a result, G-20 joint communique read by the conference of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, did not mention it substantially in the affairs of the Beijing-Washington.
So how to dispute Yuan versus US Dollar for the next ?
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