China will surpass the U.S. to become the country with the largest economy in the world by 2020, according to Standart Chartered Plc.
We believe that the world is in the 'super cycle' prolonged high growth," said the economists, led by Gerard Lyons in his report. "The scale of change within the next 20 years will be very big”.
The Chinese economy will be larger than United States, in 2030 and will cover 24% of global production, up from 9% today. India will pass Japan to become the country with the third largest economy in the next decade according to the report, said Lyons
The world will experience a "super cycle" in the third, as "a period of high global growth in history, which lasted for a one generation or longer.
characterized by the emergence of a new economy that looks great from the very rapid growth in developing countries driven by increased trade, higher investment, urbanization and technology, wrote Standart Chartered.
They also added that the super cycle of growth marked with a stable currency that can be closely linked to gold or silver, the currency union. Concerns today about the "currency war" highlights the challenges with the current system, according to Standart Chartered.
"The possibility of a formal change in the stability of the currency on a global level cannot be avoided," according to the report
However, for the present context, it is difficult to predict. Greater currency interventions may occur, and we can see more state control of the currency and the currency of reference may be a kind of norm for currency policy
Previously, the super cycle occurred from 1870 to 1913, and at the beginning of World War until the early 1970s, according to Standart Chartered.
11/19/10
A Dead Lock for the settlement of the dispute's Yuan versus US Dollar !!
Seventh meeting in the last two years between Hu Jin Tao and Barack Obama on the G-20 still did not produce any agreement. Currency Exchange is a central issue in the talks at the Summit G-20 in Seoul, South Korea last week
Weakened United States economy since the financial crisis in 2008. Beginning with the supreme mortgage, eventually becoming the financial institution crisis, which ultimately makes a lot of people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate also increased rapidly
This problem is a burden the U.S. Government, Obama was forced to meet a campaign promise to double exports to the united states economy could rise
The decreasing number of jobs and exports is due to declining competitiveness of American against Chinese's products. American consumer goods less competitive even within their own country
The value of the Yuan low against the US Dollar makes Chinese products sell well in world markets.
Chinese-made goods flooding the market around the world. China became the number one exporter in the world, shifting the position of Germany
Until August this year, China's trade surplus against the U.S. It reached U.S. $ 28 billion.
Chinese's government policies that suppress the yuan exchange rate against the dollar are considered a big share of this trade imbalance.
United States economy is a mess because the policies of George W. Bush, who spent two-thirds of foreign exchange for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama should be smart to persuade Hu Jin Tao, for China to soften the currency question
Facing U.S. pressure, Hu, still not promising change in currency policy significantly to Obama.
Hu only gives a signal that China intends to reform the Yuan in accordance with international standards
"This is a process that requires approval of global economic players," said Ma Zhaoxu, spoken for Foreign Ministry.
United States policy of central banks last week issued a new currency with guaranteed debt of U.S. $ 600 billion worth of upsetting the Chinese government. That money is considered illegal because it will make money flow out of control in developing countries like in Asia
International Director of the Central Bank of China, Zhang Tao said, “Washington had damaged the world financial and trading system”.
“As a country that was on the rise, there is the important current world economic recovery, but the policy can make a risk to destroy the system”, said Zhang
This policy makes the dollar fell, making U.S. Products will be sold in the country, and able to compete with other countries, including China.
but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, denied that the policy of Washington was pressing Beijing aims to reform the Yuan currency.
"We will not weaken the currency as a tool to enhance the ability to compete or to grow the economy", he said
As the G-20 closed last week in Seoul, negotiators still could not soften the Chinese and American. to agree about the system currency and international trade.
As a result, G-20 joint communique read by the conference of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, did not mention it substantially in the affairs of the Beijing-Washington.
So how to dispute Yuan versus US Dollar for the next ?
Weakened United States economy since the financial crisis in 2008. Beginning with the supreme mortgage, eventually becoming the financial institution crisis, which ultimately makes a lot of people lost their jobs. The unemployment rate also increased rapidly
This problem is a burden the U.S. Government, Obama was forced to meet a campaign promise to double exports to the united states economy could rise
The decreasing number of jobs and exports is due to declining competitiveness of American against Chinese's products. American consumer goods less competitive even within their own country
The value of the Yuan low against the US Dollar makes Chinese products sell well in world markets.
Chinese-made goods flooding the market around the world. China became the number one exporter in the world, shifting the position of Germany
Until August this year, China's trade surplus against the U.S. It reached U.S. $ 28 billion.
Chinese's government policies that suppress the yuan exchange rate against the dollar are considered a big share of this trade imbalance.
United States economy is a mess because the policies of George W. Bush, who spent two-thirds of foreign exchange for the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Obama should be smart to persuade Hu Jin Tao, for China to soften the currency question
Facing U.S. pressure, Hu, still not promising change in currency policy significantly to Obama.
Hu only gives a signal that China intends to reform the Yuan in accordance with international standards
"This is a process that requires approval of global economic players," said Ma Zhaoxu, spoken for Foreign Ministry.
United States policy of central banks last week issued a new currency with guaranteed debt of U.S. $ 600 billion worth of upsetting the Chinese government. That money is considered illegal because it will make money flow out of control in developing countries like in Asia
International Director of the Central Bank of China, Zhang Tao said, “Washington had damaged the world financial and trading system”.
“As a country that was on the rise, there is the important current world economic recovery, but the policy can make a risk to destroy the system”, said Zhang
This policy makes the dollar fell, making U.S. Products will be sold in the country, and able to compete with other countries, including China.
but Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, denied that the policy of Washington was pressing Beijing aims to reform the Yuan currency.
"We will not weaken the currency as a tool to enhance the ability to compete or to grow the economy", he said
As the G-20 closed last week in Seoul, negotiators still could not soften the Chinese and American. to agree about the system currency and international trade.
As a result, G-20 joint communique read by the conference of South Korean President Lee Myung-bak, did not mention it substantially in the affairs of the Beijing-Washington.
So how to dispute Yuan versus US Dollar for the next ?
11/10/10
FED disbursed 1.5 trillion dollars to trigger U.S. Economic Recovery
Fed (Federal Reserve) on Wednesday, has taken a bold step for approving an additional budget of 600 billion dollars to support the American economic and to reduce unemployment case.
Actions by the Fed this has ever happened, when the US Economy is still stable and
committee decided to broaden the ownership of securities. Even so, members of the Fed
also warned that the recovery rate "will continue to be slow"
The protests came from one of the members of the Fed, Thomas Hoenig, who regard it as an overreaction and could trigger a long-term inflation
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said they will buy Treasury debt (bonds) of approximately 75 billion dollars per month. It's never happened since the economic crisis.
While spending, the Fed does not contribute directly to the .US. Deficit and debt, economists also said the additional spending means a wasteful for Washington for embracing the policy
The Fed has set up more than 1.5 trillion dollars to trigger economic recovery, even that, the Fed Governor, Ben Bernanke, also has been criticized for not reducing the role of banks in the free market
The critics argue, although the recovery is very slow, the market should be left free, because if the policy fails, the Fed's credibility will be damaged.
But the Fed argued, this new spending is to help reduce unemployment and deflation risks.
According to the Fed, the world's largest economy grew by about 2.0% per year.
Analysts expect interest rates of The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin with the purchase of approximately 500 billion dollars in Treasury bonds.
Economic growth in the third quarter is to support expectations of further stimulus from the Fed to lower interest rates and anticipate a long-term deflationary pressures in the American economy.
Economists think of economic growth should reach about three percent in order to reduce significantly to high unemployment.
After more than a year the recession ended, unemployment in the United States has close to double digits.
The US government has reported, that the unemployment rate estimated at 9.6% for three months since July to October
Meanwhile, unlike U.S., in London, Bank of England (Bank of England / BoE) on Thursday said that the BoE policy maker has maintained its key interest rate at a record low, 0.50% and decided to demand a new stimulus measures.
The Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England, chose to maintain the official rate (Bank Rate) paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%
Besides that, they have chosen to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the central bank reserves to issue 200 billion pounds
Actions by the Fed this has ever happened, when the US Economy is still stable and
committee decided to broaden the ownership of securities. Even so, members of the Fed
also warned that the recovery rate "will continue to be slow"
The protests came from one of the members of the Fed, Thomas Hoenig, who regard it as an overreaction and could trigger a long-term inflation
Meanwhile, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) said they will buy Treasury debt (bonds) of approximately 75 billion dollars per month. It's never happened since the economic crisis.
While spending, the Fed does not contribute directly to the .US. Deficit and debt, economists also said the additional spending means a wasteful for Washington for embracing the policy
The Fed has set up more than 1.5 trillion dollars to trigger economic recovery, even that, the Fed Governor, Ben Bernanke, also has been criticized for not reducing the role of banks in the free market
The critics argue, although the recovery is very slow, the market should be left free, because if the policy fails, the Fed's credibility will be damaged.
But the Fed argued, this new spending is to help reduce unemployment and deflation risks.
According to the Fed, the world's largest economy grew by about 2.0% per year.
Analysts expect interest rates of The Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) will begin with the purchase of approximately 500 billion dollars in Treasury bonds.
Economic growth in the third quarter is to support expectations of further stimulus from the Fed to lower interest rates and anticipate a long-term deflationary pressures in the American economy.
Economists think of economic growth should reach about three percent in order to reduce significantly to high unemployment.
After more than a year the recession ended, unemployment in the United States has close to double digits.
The US government has reported, that the unemployment rate estimated at 9.6% for three months since July to October
Meanwhile, unlike U.S., in London, Bank of England (Bank of England / BoE) on Thursday said that the BoE policy maker has maintained its key interest rate at a record low, 0.50% and decided to demand a new stimulus measures.
The Monetary Policy Committee Bank of England, chose to maintain the official rate (Bank Rate) paid on commercial bank reserves at 0.5%
Besides that, they have chosen to maintain the stock of asset purchases financed by the central bank reserves to issue 200 billion pounds
11/6/10
USA vs CHINA
US Government continues to press China to raise immediately the yuan rate against US Dollar deal for the response the market. The trade balance deficit for the two countries remained balanced
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Chinese Vice Premier Wang had meting in China, last October, to discuss the economic relations among US - China, that increasingly strained due to yuan exchange rate
At that meeting Geithner and Wang discussed the issue of U.S. Economy - China and the preparation of the G20 summit in Seoul, November
According to Geithner, the G20 finance ministers meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, he believes China continues to move, based on the market exchange rate and based on economic fundamentals
Geithner said, if this is allowed to continue, distinguished yuan currency undervalued, to the detriment of US. And gives an unfair advantage in trade with China
We have had many large telecommunications companies that shift the dominance of China's major telecom companies of U.S., such as Huawei, ZTE eg
There are two different opinions about this subject, partly analyst to assess accidentally, China pressing for the yuan exchange rate to be continued to dominate trade with the US and get a cheap price
Other analysts believe, the level of the low US. Savings rate is the cause of U.S. trade deficit - China
The meanwhile chief IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said some days ago in a news conference emphasized, China, India, Russia, Italy and Brazil have now become a "major player"
He asked the five countries bear the greater responsibility for guiding the global economy.
Revive global growth after US. Financial markets collapse, followed by global markets.
In IMF, currently there are five countries in 24 members executive council, which represented to U.S., Japan, Britain, France and Germany and will be expanded into 10 countries with the addition of China, India, Brazil, Italy and Russia
This decision to accommodate the desire of China, which continues to oppose U.S. domination - Europe in IMF. Reform of the IMF is basically to solve every problem with the "democracy deficit."
President Obama next week's scheduled visit to Asia, Indonesia, India, Korea and Japan for 10 days.
According to Obama said, US. Financial recovery largely depends on strengthening trade and U.S. Productivity to cope with trade pressure from China and other developing countries the power
And US prosperity is on the open market of goods produced and performed by American workers, not just consume, but should be making any things
Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Chinese Vice Premier Wang had meting in China, last October, to discuss the economic relations among US - China, that increasingly strained due to yuan exchange rate
At that meeting Geithner and Wang discussed the issue of U.S. Economy - China and the preparation of the G20 summit in Seoul, November
According to Geithner, the G20 finance ministers meeting in Gyeongju, South Korea, he believes China continues to move, based on the market exchange rate and based on economic fundamentals
Geithner said, if this is allowed to continue, distinguished yuan currency undervalued, to the detriment of US. And gives an unfair advantage in trade with China
We have had many large telecommunications companies that shift the dominance of China's major telecom companies of U.S., such as Huawei, ZTE eg
There are two different opinions about this subject, partly analyst to assess accidentally, China pressing for the yuan exchange rate to be continued to dominate trade with the US and get a cheap price
Other analysts believe, the level of the low US. Savings rate is the cause of U.S. trade deficit - China
The meanwhile chief IMF, Dominique Strauss-Kahn said some days ago in a news conference emphasized, China, India, Russia, Italy and Brazil have now become a "major player"
He asked the five countries bear the greater responsibility for guiding the global economy.
Revive global growth after US. Financial markets collapse, followed by global markets.
In IMF, currently there are five countries in 24 members executive council, which represented to U.S., Japan, Britain, France and Germany and will be expanded into 10 countries with the addition of China, India, Brazil, Italy and Russia
This decision to accommodate the desire of China, which continues to oppose U.S. domination - Europe in IMF. Reform of the IMF is basically to solve every problem with the "democracy deficit."
President Obama next week's scheduled visit to Asia, Indonesia, India, Korea and Japan for 10 days.
According to Obama said, US. Financial recovery largely depends on strengthening trade and U.S. Productivity to cope with trade pressure from China and other developing countries the power
And US prosperity is on the open market of goods produced and performed by American workers, not just consume, but should be making any things
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)